Interview with Ms. H
"In Japan, people rarely like to stand out or act alone. Whenever something important arises, companies prefer to act collectively, presenting a united front through associations. For example, when Trump raised tariffs on automobiles, Toyota, Nissan, and Honda didn’t each approach the government separately. Instead, the Automobile Association—representing about twenty member companies—gathered to discuss the issue, and only then submitted a collective proposal. It was the association, not the individual companies, that spoke to policymakers.
This approach exists across industries. The auto sector also has a Parts Association, connecting companies across the supply chain. Healthcare has its own medical and hospital associations. Even at the top level, conglomerates belong to Keidanren, the federation of large enterprises, which includes global firms like Huawei. When these corporations want to make proposals or push back against government measures, they do so through Keidanren. Even when the government issues new instructions, it usually relays them via associations, not directly to single companies. Of course, if a company is large enough, it might still have direct contact, but formal lobbying and recommendations almost always flow through these collective bodies.
This reflects a deeper cultural tendency in Japan: people prefer consensus. Few want to take the first risk or “eat the crab.” They wait and watch—if others venture into China and face no problems, then they’ll follow, but rarely does anyone want to make the first move. That’s why, in my own work, joining associations has been essential. They provide not only connections but also the channels to voice suggestions and build trust.
Looking to the future, Japan’s economy will continue to operate within this consensus-based framework, while also navigating its relationships with China and the United States. Historically, China and Japan had more trade with each other than Japan did with the U.S., and although Japanese investment in China has recently slowed, the two economies remain deeply complementary. Take semiconductors: China provides raw materials, while Japan refines them into high-precision products and exports them back for manufacturing. In materials science, advanced robotics, and basic research, Japan still holds strong advantages.
At the same time, Japan remains highly tied to the U.S. economy. Stock prices in Tokyo often mirror Wall Street’s overnight moves, and Japan has deep collaborations with the U.S. in AI, robotics, and space development. Recent years have also seen Japan welcome global semiconductor leaders like TSMC, with factories now in Kumamoto and research centers in Hokkaido. These investments are bolstering Japan’s technological base and lifting its markets.
China, meanwhile, faces more immediate challenges. Real estate remains sluggish, population aging is accelerating, and social pressures are mounting, so its growth won’t be as fast as in the past. Yet outside of property, there are reasons for optimism. AI innovation—such as advances by DeepSeek in Hangzhou—and breakthroughs in electric vehicles led by companies like BYD highlight areas where China is already leading the world. With its large pool of young talent and the return of students educated abroad, China still has strong potential, though perhaps on a steadier, less explosive trajectory than before.
In this sense, Japan is pursuing stability, built on its associations and consensus-driven system, while China is pushing innovation, even as it works through structural challenges. The two countries will remain economically intertwined for the next ten to twenty years, and true decoupling is unlikely."