Interview with Mr. M

"When I compare China and Japan, what strikes me most is the difference in system and order. Japan, ever since the Meiji Restoration, has had time to refine its capitalist structure. Rules are clearer, boundaries stronger, and the system as a whole feels more stable. In China, things still run very much on personal connections. Of course, Japan has this too, but it only comes into play once society is already running smoothly. Ordinary people don’t have to navigate hidden relationships; they simply go about their lives. In China, by contrast, even at the very bottom, decisions are shaped by who you know. That undermines fairness, slows efficiency, and blocks talent from rising.

Take football as an example. Why is Chinese soccer always struggling? Because from the earliest stages, it depends on money and connections. If you don’t have the resources, your child won’t even get the chance to try. When talent is filtered that way from the beginning, how can a country hope to produce excellence? In Japan, the system itself feels fairer. Opportunities are more widely available.

But if I turn to the economy today, I can’t hide my worries about China. My own business here in Japan depends almost entirely on Chinese customers—mainly young parents. So when China’s economy weakens, I feel the impact immediately. Real estate has been collapsing, policies shift constantly, and consumer confidence has evaporated. Already last year, our sales started to dip. This year, from February or March, they fell off a cliff. What once was one million in monthly sales is now three hundred thousand.

It’s not just competition or cheaper alternatives. It’s the confidence of the middle class. We sell children’s clothing priced at 130 to 200 per piece, not the 9.9 “free shipping” kind. That requires stable, confident consumers, and right now they simply don’t believe in the future. If you’re uncertain whether your house value will drop further, whether your job will survive, you don’t buy two outfits for your child anymore—you buy one, or none.

I’ve seen this pattern before. Japan lived through it after the bubble burst. For thirty years, families struggled with mortgages, and consumption froze. Only recently, as those debts were finally paid off, have people started to spend again. By contrast, China is at the start of that painful cycle. That’s why the slowdown feels so sharp—like a spiral going downward, not yet touching bottom.

Japan’s economy, meanwhile, may not be growing fast, but it is steady. Employment rates remain high. Salaries haven’t risen much in decades, but people are not facing mass joblessness. Stability itself gives people the courage to spend. In China today, with millions of graduates struggling to find work, uncertainty eats away at both confidence and consumption. A nation must first be stable before it can truly develop. Without that foundation, even the strongest growth numbers won’t last."